Nationals’ Rendon gives spice to Hot Stove League
You don’t have to be an expert in advanced analytics to understand what a hot streak in October can do for a free agent’s portfolio. Actually all it requires is a basic understanding of baseball’s economy. If you’re healthy, productive and looking for a big paycheck, there’s no better launching pad than the World Series.
So say hello to Anthony Rendon’s future profitability, thanks to his other-worldly contributions to the Nationals’ upset of the Astros. There were plenty of compelling storylines in the Fall Classic, not the least of which was a wild-card team taking down the industry’s No. 1 powerhouse, winning all four games on the road. But it’s reasonable to say the Nats’ offense couldn’t have broken through against Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander and Houston’s bullpen without Rendon.
The 29-year-old third baseman’s damage wasn’t limited to just the World Series, either. Rendon batted .328 (20-for-61), including three home runs and 15 RBI throughout the postseason. He was personally responsible for ruining the Dodgers’ hopes of ending their championship drought, hitting the first of two consecutive eighth-inning home runs off Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the Division Series.
That turned what could’ve been a 3-1 Dodgers victory – and a trip to the National League Championship Series – into the Nationals’ 7-3 conquest in extra innings. If it wasn’t apparent by then, Rendon made sure the rest of the country knew he was on a straight path to a free agent jackpot.
Naturally, he’s at the top of the list of Latino stars who’ll be looking for new employers this winters. Here’s the Fab Five and where they might end up.
Anthony Rendon:
As stated, the right-handed slugger is in the sweet spot of his career, given his age, recent performance in the post-season and all-around marketability. Rendon, a Mexican-American, will be a fit in any market and any clubhouse. But don’t be surprised if he re-signs with the Nationals, who could lose fellow free agent Stephen Strasburg and will be able to practically print money to re-sign Rendon.
How much? The better question is how long. Rendon might command as many as eight years. The Nationals themselves set the bar, offering a seven-year, $210 million extension in September. Rendon could’ve easily re-signed with Washington at that point, but he waited long enough to put the finishing touches on a historic season. His 1.010 OPS, 117 runs scored, 34 homers and 126 RBIs were the most by any player since Albert Pujols in 2009.
Didi Gregorius:
The Yankees officially cut the shortstop loose on Monday, deciding against a $17.8 million qualifying offer. If he’s played his last game with the Bombers, Gregorius leaves with a fine five-year legacy as Derek Jeter’s replacement. But Didi never found his footing after returning from Tommy John surgery this summer, batting .238 with a career-worst .276 on-base percentage.
Of course, it’s still possible Didi could return to the Yankees on a one-year deal. It might actually be the best move for his career, using 2020 as a single-summer audition. He’s still only 29, still young enough to salvage the prime phase of his career.
If Gregorius chooses to go elsewhere the Yankees already have a back-up plan in place: Gleyber Torres will inherit shortstop, allowing D.J. LeMahieu to slide over to second base. The only remaining question is what the Yankees will do with Miguel Andujar, who will be returning from shoulder surgery next spring. He missed most of 2019, which allowed Gio Urshela to take over at third base.
Yasmani Grandal:
Clearly the most talented catcher on the market, Grandal is a free agent for the second year in a row. He had a successful run with the Dodgers from 2012-2018 but couldn’t land a contract to his liking last winter. Hence, a one-year deal with the Brewers that solidified his standing as a run-producer
All the switch-hitting Grandal did was slug a career-best 28 home runs, putting him ahead of the pack of free agent catchers that includes Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos.
What makes Grandal even more attractive is he comes with no strings attached. The Brewers cannot make him a qualifying offer because one cannot be extended to a player twice in his career, per to the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The Dodgers did so in 2018.
There’s a slight chance Grandal remains with the Brewers for another season, since his contract calls for a mutual, one-year option for $16.6 million. Even if Milwaukee exercises it, there’s no incentive for Grandal to accept, considering the anticipated demand for his services elsewhere. He’ll instead take the $2.25 million buyout and start shopping. The Reds are believed to be at the front of the line.
Marcell Ozuna:
The Cardinals’ slugger will have competition this winter, as fellow free agents Yasiel Puig and Nicholas Castellanos are both fine corner outfielders. Ozuna had a solid year in St. Louis, slugging 29 home runs, although he hasn’t quite matched the firepower of his 2013-2017 tenure with the Marlins. His best year in Miami occurred on his way out the door: .312 batting average, 37 HRs and 124 RBIs in ’17.
Despite the slight drop-off in St. Louis, Ozuna has hit 112 home runs in the last four seasons, reason enough for the Cardinals to have made a qualifying offer this week. The club has further indicated its willingness to discuss a long-term contract. The two sides will reportedly meet in the next 10 days.
Edwin Encarnacion:
The Yankees thought they’d acquired a difference-maker at the trade deadline, picking up a proven long-ball threat from the Mariners. Encarnacion was coming off a streak of seven straight seasons of at least 30 homers and 98 RBI, which theoretically made for a terrifying collection of run-producers in the middle of the Bombers’ lineup.
Along with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, Encarnacion was supposed to steamroll the Bombers straight to the World Series. But that blueprint never materialized. Encarnacion batted only .056 against the Astros in the ALCS, striking out in 11 of his 18 at-bats.
The Yankees subsequently declined his $20 million option for 2020. Going into his age-37 season Encarnacion is clearly near the finish line of his career. But he still has residual home run power and will likely end up with a smaller market team on a one-year deal.